The Atlanta Braves are in a heated pennant race in the NL East with the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. They currently sit in second place behind the Mets by 7 games and ahead of the Phillies by 3.
They had gotten the deficit down to 1.5 games earlier this August but after some poor outings and a lopsided 5 game series with New York, they found themselves needing to play near flawless baseball to avoid the wild card gauntlet.
Now all is not lost, Atlanta has an upcoming 4 game series with the Mets next week that can help gain some ground and shift momentum.
I’m here to break down the 7 factors for the Braves to pull off this epic comeback and reclaim their NL East crown.
1. Close the Gap This Week
With Atlanta having the next 8 games in division, including 4 games against New York starting Monday, now is the optimal time for the Braves to play some of their best baseball. After the abysmal showing in their last series against the Mets, many players voiced their eagerness to see them again. If the Braves can take 3/4 they can make that large deficit a little more manageable so they don’t have to put too much pressure on themselves down the stretch.
2. Ronnie Being Ronnie
There has been a lot of talk about the way Braves stud Ronald Acuna has been playing this year. Something has just seemed off in his game, whether that’s at the plate or in the outfield. The concerns of his poor plate discipline or late jumps in the outfield were widely publicized.
We finally got a glimpse of what may have been the cause when Acuna himself came out after a game and let the media know that his surgically repaired right knee was still giving him trouble. Although the issue wasn’t physical, it seems that he feels “different” from game to game, even swing to swing. It sounded like his wasn’t trusting the knee.
I don’t know if Ronald needed to just get that off his chest to get back to his old ways but he has definitely flipped a switch since he uttered those words about his knee. Since that game he is hitting .414 and has come up with some much needed web gems out in right field.
This is why he is on this list. When right, Ronald Acuna Jr can carry a whole team for long stretches at a time. Something the Braves may need.
3. Rotation Stability/Effectiveness
At the start of the season, if you asked any Braves fan about what pitchers they were most confident in, they would easily say Fried, Anderson and Morton.
Well while Max Fried has himself in the conversation for best lefty in the game right now, the other two names have had about as turbulent of a year as you will get.
Ian Anderson was sent to Triple A Gwinnett on the “Wankster Wagon” as Atlanta radio host Randy McMichaels would say (ha). He has a stat line of 5.11 ERA and was tied for the league lead in walks with 53.
Anderson is 24 years old, let’s not forget about that. He is going to be a big piece of the Braves’ future and if they plan on playing in October, he’s gonna be needed in the present.
The issue from my viewing of his outings has been location. His bread and butter is his fastball/change up combo. Now when you aren’t throwing strikes and are leaving pitches up in the zone, you’re asking for trouble. Ian hasn’t lasted 7 innings in any outing this season due to either pitch count (not throwing enough strikes) or getting shelled ( leaving those pitches up). When he is at his best he is attacking the lower half of the zone and getting swings and misses on his changeups under the strike zone. I have confidence that Anderson can make the proper adjustments and find his magic again.
Now that brings us to the vet, Charlie Morton. I should called Charlie Morton the human Six Flags for how much of a roller coaster this year has been.
The beginning of the season saw Morton post a 5.47 ERA in his first 10 starts. Then in June he posted a 3.9 ERA to right the ship. It’s been somewhat up and down with each start since the end of June.
Morton is the elder statesman and supposed to be the 2nd best here in the rotation. Right now I have more confidence in the two youngsters, Strider and Wright than the two who played pivotal roles in last year’s World Series win.
4. Who Really Wants Left Field?
While the top of the lineup is stacked and has been producing at a high level lately, we know that the back end of a lineup is the difference from being pretty good to being elite.
Last season we saw Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson all be irreplaceable in the postseason. This year 2/4 of those guys are on other rosters while Duvall was places on the 60 day IL subsequently ending his season. Rosario is slowly looking like himself while now platooning with newly acquired Robbie Grossman.
We also have Marcell Ozuna back in the fold this season but in my opinion his bat head has looked a bit slow this season as we see a lot of opposing teams pitching him inside with pretty decent success.
He seems to be slowly trying to come around but he’s 13-for-85 (.153 AVG) since July 9th. That’s just not gonna get the job done. I’d love to see both of the Brave’s catchers get more at bats.
If Atlanta wants to be their elite selves then at least 2 of these guys are going to have to find their swing and make this lineup a murderer’s row again.
5. Nightshift on PTO
Paging the night shift!! Paging the night shift!!
This bullpen has been a top 10 bullpen this year no doubt and statistically better than last year so far. The thing is, there is just a lack of dominance and that assuring feeling from last year. Maybe its the last of the systematic structure of knowing exactly which inning belonged to who. This year we have seen injury force some players in to roles they haven’t been in and some guys just look ineffective.
Will Smith was lights out in the post season and now he is back on the West Coast. Luke Jackson is recovering from TJ surgery and Tyler Matzek is trying to regain his dominance after battling injury this year.
Newcomers Kenly Jensen, Collin McHugh and Raisel Iglesias are tasked with filling shoes and doing their parts. We also have former Kirby Yates in the fold after rehabbing from a Tommy John surgery of his own. He made his debut against the Red Sox and looked sharp.
This iteration of the night shift needs to clock in now if Atlanta plans on catching the Mets and defending their World Series crown.
